One extension Denver Broncos fans may be expecting the team to announce in the near future is that of 2021 first-round pick Patrick Surtain II. As one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL, it's not hard to figure out that the Broncos need to keep him.
One argument for getting Surtain extended sooner than later is that the Broncos can avoid the rising costs in the cornerback market. I have previously discussed, though, that it's not exactly the case that other cornerbacks have re-set the market.
But another cornerback who entered the final year of his contract got extended in recent weeks. The Atlanta Falcons agreed to a four-year deal with A.J. Terrell, the team's 2020 first-round pick.
Terrell got a four-year, $81 million deal with $42.344M fully guaranteed upon signing. He got $65.844M in total guarantees and $53.5M in new guarantees.
The new guarantees are important to note because Terrell was due $12.344M in fully guaranteed salary for 2024, after the Falcons exercised the fifth-year option in his rookie deal. Still, the new guarantees matter, along with full and total guarantees, in figuring out how this contract might impact the negotiations for a Surtain extension.
For starters, while Terrell got near the top in APY salary, he didn't re-set the market in that aspect. His $20.25M APY salary trails that of Jaire Alexander at $21M. It does represent an increase over the APY salary for L'Jarius Sneed at $19.1M.
Also, Terrell's APY salary exceeds that of Denzel Ward at $20.1M, but did not exceed Ward's contract in other aspects. Ward got $44.5M in fully guaranteed money and $71.25M in total guarantees.
In other words, Ward still holds the highest marks for guaranteed money, whether full or total guarantees. Thus, those numbers are still the ones Surtain is poised to surpass.
While APY salary can be useful, and it's likely Surtain will set a new benchmark for APY salary, that isn't the mark to beat above all else. Full guarantees, total guarantees and new guarantees matter just as much.
Currently, Surtain is due a little more than $3.5M for 2024 and $19.8M for 2025, the latter coming from the fifth-year option the Broncos picked up. If he were to sign a contract during the season, that guaranteed money will be part of the new deal.
Consequently, Surtain and his agent are certain to seek a significant sum of new guarantees. If we assume Surtain was to sign that deal this season and match Terrell's $53.5M in new guarantees, Surtain would be looking at $76.8M in total guarantees. That would easily surpass Ward's total guarantees.
However, it wouldn't surprise if Surtain and his agent would seek to surpass the new guarantees Terrell got. If Surtain got $55M in new guarantees, that would mean he gets more than $78M in total guarantees.
If the Broncos wait until after the season to extend Surtain, the $3.5M he is due this season wouldn't apply to the extension. Only the fifth-year option of $19.8M would apply. If we assume $55M in new guarantees in a deal signed in 2025, that gives Surtain $74.8M in total guarantees, which still easily surpasses what Ward got.
Simply put, Surtain is likely to be the cornerback who actually re-sets the market in every aspect. And while it would be great to see him sign a deal sooner than later, how soon he signs an extension won't change the fact that he's certain to become the highest-paid cornerback in the NFL by any aspect you consider.
So while the Terrell extension may impact negotiations for a Surtain deal to some degree, Ward's contract matters just as much in negotiations. It's easy to look at the wide receiver market and think that somebody is going to do a massive re-set like Justin Jefferson, but among young cornerbacks eligible for extensions, none of them are as talented as Surtain.
If anybody does truly re-set the cornerback market, Surtain is that player. The only question is how soon he and the Broncos come to terms on that new deal.
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